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  • 應對貿易摩擦,中國底氣何來?

    ——專家解讀中美經貿摩擦形勢與應對

    2019年06月06日09:44  來源:人民網-強國論壇
     

    日前,中國國務院新聞辦公室發布《關于中美經貿磋商的中方立場》白皮書,系統介紹了中美經貿摩擦的來龍去脈和兩國經貿磋商的基本情況,闡明了中國政府關于中美經貿磋商的原則立場。白皮書在此節點發布有何深意?如何看待當前中美經貿摩擦的形勢?未來如何應對?國家發改委國際合作中心副主任劉建興做客強國論壇,為網友詳解。

    白皮書發布展現中國應對決心

    強國論壇: 6月2日,《關于中美經貿磋商的中方立場》白皮書發布,充分表明了中國的磋商立場。您如何看待當前時間節點下白皮書發布的意義?這份白皮書有哪些看點?

    劉建興:這次白皮書在一個非常重要的時間節點進行發布,非常及時。如大家所知,中美經貿磋商現在進展到第十一輪,本來大家對它非常高的期待,認為在這一輪磋商當中雙方能取得很好的進展,達成很好的協議,這樣對中美兩國人民,對全球經濟都有重要的穩定作用。但是,大大出乎大家預料,美國這一屆政府在談判過程當中出爾反爾、肆意妄為的行徑表現得非常突出。在這種情況下,我覺得中國政府要給世界人民一個說法,告訴大家事實的真相。這是白皮書發布的重要意義。

    相對于上一次,這一次白皮書發布很重要的一個特點,就是充分表達了中國不愿打、不怕打,必要時不得不打的決心。我們從經濟方面、政策方面,從人民群眾的心理方面,都有了很好的準備。

    應對貿易摩擦需做好兩手準備

    強國論壇:如何看待當前中美經貿摩擦的形勢?

    劉建興:我覺得對未來的形勢判斷,我們要有兩手準備。第一方面,要認識到中美之間形成的這種戰略競爭的格局在短時間之內是不會改變的,我們要隨時準備好應付未來的變局;另一方面,我們更主要的是把自己的事情做好,把自己的經濟建設好,保持經濟穩定運行,以不變應萬變。

    強國論壇:下一步兩國經貿磋商取得進展的關鍵是什么?

    劉建興:為什么我們覺得從長遠來看未來雙方肯定還是會達成一定的協議?因為中美只有達成協議,對雙方才有好處,對世界經濟增長才有好處。我們相信,有好處的東西,符合大家長遠利益的東西,一定是可以達到的,但是這個過程是比較曲折的。在這過程當中,我們要充分利用好我們的各種政策措施,把我們自己內部的事做好,繼續談判,繼續磋商,把握好各種可能的機會,等待著時機的轉變。

    美國升級經貿摩擦遭反噬

    強國論壇:在中美經貿摩擦中,美方受到哪些影響?

    劉建興:美國無論是從投資、消費還是股市的財富效應,都不同程度受到了影響。關于這方面的證據非常多,白皮書就進行了很多披露。比如今年1-4月份,美國對中國的出口,一定程度上也是因為我們的反制措施,在大幅下降。因為中美經貿摩擦不得人心,最終對資本市場形成影響,美國的股市也在下降,也會作為財富效應對美國的最終消費形成影響。

    還有影響企業家的投資信心,過去美國產業界一支非常有活力的隊伍就是中國的投資企業,投資并購一些美國科技領域的成長型企業,這是美國科技研發重要的資金來源。但是在中美經貿摩擦大背景下,企業家的信心受到了打擊。

    另外很重要的就是美國的消費,在這幾十年的時間,美國之所以能夠保持溫和通脹條件下的較高速的增長,很大程度上是因為中國給美國輸送了大量物美價廉的商品,對消費品價格起到了很好的抑制作用,對消費者的福利有很好的促進作用。但是,美國對中國商品加征關稅之后,商品價格提升,美國普通老百姓,特別是下層老百姓的生活成本大幅提升了。這方面的證據今后會越來越多,越來越明顯。

    強國論壇:美國多次違反世貿組織相關規則,損害包括中國在內的有關成員的正當權益的行為,對全球多邊貿易體系有哪些影響?

    劉建興:現在的經濟越來越一體化,越來越成為一個全球村。所以,無論是中國、美國還是歐洲,其實大家都在一條船上。中美之間的經貿摩擦,必然會對全球經濟,也會對歐洲經濟,對新興市場經濟形成普遍性的影響。

    中國的競爭力要用理性眼光長遠評估

    強國論壇:“貿易戰”升級對中國企業的影響主要集中在哪些方面?中國企業如何采取應對策略?

    劉建興:經貿摩擦對不同企業的影響是不同的,對企業的短期效應和長期效應也是不同的。目前來看,影響比較大的主要是中國加工貿易型企業。這些企業由于稅收增加,使得在國外價格增加,銷售受到一定的影響,這是我們看到的最短期的情況。更長期的,可以看到很多企業由于對中美未來的經貿關系走向不確定性的擔憂,使得投資出現觀望狀態,有的企業過去長期依靠中國比較好的基礎設施條件,比較豐富的、日益熟練的勞動技能工人,依托這方面的優勢,扎根中國市場,成為中美出口貿易當中的支柱企業。企業看不準未來,開始想是不是往其他地方轉移,出現這種疑慮是可以理解的。但是更多的企業看到,中國的競爭力不是建立在某個單一的要素上。中國作為世界工廠,我們的營商環境、產業鏈的完善、工業體系的完整,這方面所形成的基礎是其他國家無法替代的。企業要用長遠眼光來看,對影響要有更加理性的評估。

    這次美國對中國高科技企業進行打壓,短期內可能會讓中國一些企業正常的產業鏈受到一定影響。但是從更長遠視角來看,這次徹底給中國企業敲響了警鐘。在當前經濟全球化進程中、全球產業分工中,如果沒有自己的核心技術,沒有自己未雨綢繆的產業鏈、供應鏈方面的安排,企業難免哪一次就觸礁了。這一次給中國高科技企業上了深刻一課。

    中國將扎扎實實地推動改革開放

    強國論壇:今年“一帶一路”國際合作高峰論壇成功舉辦,第二屆進博會等主場外交活動也在籌備中。下一步,中國進一步擴大開放的著力點在哪里?

    劉建興:我覺得應對一個不確定的世界,最好的心態、最好的方式就是把自己的事情做好。總書記在各種場合擲地有聲地提出,中國開放的大門只會越開越大。我們堅定不移地推動經濟全球化,堅定不移地敞開自己的大門,這種堅定性不會改變的。在具體策略上,中央對開放型經濟體系建設有全面系統考慮,從經貿、對外投資、營商環境改善、高質量發展等方面都有統籌考慮。這都是我們未來工作的著力點。

    強國論壇:去年年底的中央經濟工作會議指出,在百年未有之大變局中“要善于化危為機、轉危為安”。我們應該從哪些具體的工作入手來做好這項工作?

    劉建興:我們要堅決地推動高質量發展。在高質量發展過程中,第一個要素就是要把未來中國的發展依托在一個強大的國內市場當中。在經濟發展過程中,很多人強調投資,強調技術,但是真正支撐發展特別是高質量發展,最寶貴的資源是市場。中國恰恰是世界上極少數比較成熟的擁有超十億人口的大市場,這是任何一個國家都無法比擬的優勢。現在中央特別強調國內市場的重要性,我們要好好抓住這個優勢。第二個方面,我們也要注意,切實把創新作為驅動經濟增長的第一動力。只有創新,才是經濟增長的不竭來源。 

    (責編:李兵兵、王喆)
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